Remember the budget bill? Talk about spin.
6/13 UPDATE: New CBO numbers on who pays and who benefits. More tricks & traps. WSJ notes debt is the ruin of great powers and Senate wonders if health cuts could harm children, plus more...
Why this matters to women (aside from daily chaos, rising prices on everything, US-driven worldwide economic uncertainty, and as close as you can come to martial law without calling it that): There are 26 million people—almost 1 out of 10 Americans—without health insurance in the US; this bill will add another 16 million—62% more—to achieve the more than $1 trillion in cuts needed to underwrite extending Trump’s tax cut, 45% of which benefits only those in the top 5% of income earners. (See hard data on all that in prior episodes here and here.) If someone you know is on Medicaid or ACA, they’re likely in trouble…so hopefully you’re in that top 5% so you can bail them out. And now there are demands in the Senate to carve $200B out of MediCARE in case you or someone you love is on that. Alternatively, if you suspect our healthcare system costs and outcomes aren’t what they should be compared to our peer nations, you’ll also want to pay attention.
UPDATE JUNE 13
The CBO’s latest numbers on how the current budget impacts Americans: Wealthiest households will receive an avg of $12K more, middle class will benefit by under $1000, and the poorest Americans will pay $1,600. As the bill aims to make expiring provisions in Trump’s 2017 tax law permanent, additional measures geared toward working-class Americans are being slated for expiration at the end of 2028.1 “It is 100 percent a gimmick to have tax cuts that you’re putting in place for four or five years.”2 On other fronts, both parties are nailing Hegseth for refusing to disclose any details at all of the Defense budget request and for…hedging...on unbudgeted LA and (pre-rain storm3) parade costs.
Some senators experience Medicaid and SNAP cut angst, pondering whether those might maybe harm some kids.4 We’ll see how that angst holds; it didn’t faze the House. The Senate unveiled proposed changes to House bill on SNAP, with another Senate proposal to sell millions of acres of public lands to fund the tax bill. Finally, as Congress pushes a budget that requires us to spend more on debt interest payments than on defense, a WSJ piece notes debt has always been the ruin of great powers and asks, “Is the US next?”
If that’s not enough food for thought this weekend, you might check out the Army’s investigation of MAGA merch and loyalty pledges that accompanied Trump’s visit to Fort Bragg. Two days later, Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told members of the Armed Services Committee that the military should be apolitical. Caine also threaded the needle carefully while not carrying water for Trump or Hegseth on Ukraine or LA during a Senate appropriations subcommittee hearing this week.
Update June 10
Jittery bond market, Musk criticism divides Senate over costs: Decrease MediCARE? Defense? Federal Reserve? So far, no one's talking about decreasing the amount of the tax cut. “It’s a frustration for those of us who think it ought to be about fiscal restraint and/or cutting taxes, or both. It ends up becoming a spending bill.” (No kidding.) See details of current Senate discussions here from The Hill.
Original post of June 8
Musk and Trump warring, Senators taking cover, House wobbling: DC reeling 18 weeks into this administration. Only 189 weeks left to go, folks.
I’d just about finished a budget update Thursday afternoon when Trump and Musk went nuclear. If you somehow missed all that, here’s a recap.
And just like that, the budget news that previously dominated every news site vanished. Whoosh. Google “Senate budget” as I write this (evening of June 7) and you’d think the world stopped on Thursday. Previews of the Sunday talk shows are vague, at best. The Big Fight will undoubtedly come up, but delicately. Bannon’s ecstatic celebration aside5 it’s likely few professional pols are interested in taking sides publicly or predicting this one, reflecting an online poll tonight from The Hill, below, and Trump’s advice to Vance. And no network wants to become another CBS and get sued by Trump for mental anguish; heaven forbid anyone cause him mental anguish.
Basically, the budget swing ride just stopped dead with everyone stuck in the air.
And no wonder. With the Senate poised to vote on the One Big Beautiful Budget Bill Act6 (OBBBA), you now have the richest man in the world (still7) saying he will primary anyone who votes for it, and the most powerful man in the world (just ask him) saying he will primary anyone who votes against it.
Who knows what will happen this week as two of the biggest egos in the world go at it? And here’s a sobering context for the whole thing from Peter Turchin: “Elite overproduction”—an excess supply of the elite relative to available positions in the power structure—leads to competition for power, to violent political rupture, and to disastrous consequences like the state breakdowns in imperial China and medieval France, and our own Civil War.
It’s hard to imagine another administration so overstocked with elites—billionaires and wanabes—fighting each other for power, an environment Trump delights in promoting.
With that happy context from Turchin, back to what was happening on the budget bill before everyone pushed “HALT!” Thursday afternoon.
The budget bill…remember that?
Theoretically, the OBBBA has to be voted on pretty much immediately to meet Congress’ self-imposed deadline of getting the bill on Trump’s desk for signature on Independence Day. That may sound like a month, but there are actually only 8 legislative days remaining before July 4. (You know, because they’re Congress. ‘Return to the office’ does not apply.)
As predicted months ago, the ultimate battle was clarified last week by the CBO, the official referees of the budget game: No surprise, the financial battle at play is extending Trump’s tax cut by cutting health coverage for a lot of poor Americans: 11 million people—actually a total of 16 million including coverage losses that are in CBO’s baseline. That reduces spending on federal health care programs by the needed $1.3T to extend the tax cuts.
Click to see how the budget bill will affect the uninsured rate in each state.
It’s key to understand that the real problem for the GOP is that not extending Trump’s tax cut will actually increase taxes, particularly on businesses and the affluent (AKA donors). So, while the language from DC is all about tax “cuts,” the very real problem for the GOP is that not extending Trump’s 2017 cut puts them in the position of taxes increasing on their watch, even as they are in almost total control in DC: the executive, legislative and (arguably) the judicial branches of government. Which is why the sales pitch about Medicaid is it’s being saved for the truly vulnerable by getting rid of waste, fraud and abuse, which every analysis shows is certainly nothing like $1T. (Also, please ignore Trump’s quiet June 3 grant of clemency for a Florida doctor convicted of $200M in Medicare fraud. That’s different.)
If you’ve been following along on the budget, normal people have understood from the start this would eventually come down to Medicaid (or even Medicare) cuts funding the tax cut extension, even as Trump kept repeating “absolutely no cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid.” As noted back on March 9: “…the only place they’re going to find the $1T in cuts Trump wants to fund his tax cut is from Medicaid.” But the rules of the game say until the CBO analysis, there’s always hope of some miracle; and last week, that hoped-for political miracle died. As one headline pronounced, Senate irresistible forces meet immovable objects.
In addition to adding 62% more Americans to the uninsured, the CBO says the latest version of the OBBBA will:
Increase debt by nearly $3T, or roughly $5T if the tax cut is made permanent as Trump requested.
Increase the deficit to 7% of GDP by 2026. That’s more than twice China’s and significantly higher than most of our peer countries.
Double interest costs between 2024 and 2034 to $1.8 trillion. This plays out in everything Americans buy, from cars to homes and continues the undermining of the ability of younger generations to achieve anything like the American Dream my generation, Boomers, continues to think everyone can access; Millennials and Gen Z very strongly disagree.
Increase debt to 124% of GDP by 2034, 129% of GDP if the tax cuts are made permanent, and 133% if interest rates remain high. The previous debt:GDP high was 106% after WWII to pay for the Great Depression and war costs; we took that down purposefully and strategically to 31% until Reagan came into power and it started shooting right back up, tripling in only 30 years. And it wasn’t reduced last century by firing 20% of the already understaffed IRS, the people who collect taxes that would otherwise decrease the debt. (See prior posts for much more on this.)
At Trump’s demand, the CBO also analyzed the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs; that’s not going to do it, either. Here’s the short version on that:
The OBBBA also goes after more cuts in SNAP food supplements, and after the ACA, the only health insurance option these days for millions of low-wage Americans, which Republicans have been trying to repeal since it was passed in 2008. The CBO analysis shows the impact of the OBBBA would have a similar impact on the ACA to several ACA repeal bills that failed in 2017.
You may not be surprised to hear there may be some…let’s call it obfuscation…coming from the White House about the OBBBA. Democrats went after OMB Director Russ Vought on that last week, and The New York Times hasn’t been shy on it, either. (Gift article)
And that was before Musk apparently finally figured out all his jumping around about cost savings—and achieving maybe $150B of the hoped-for $2T in savings—wasn’t going to make a puddle of difference with an administration and Congress happy to increase debt.
So…where are we?
On May 22, the House of Representatives passed Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) by one (1) vote, with Speaker Johnson (and Trump as mad Daddy) achieving the almost-impossible, keeping rowdy Freedom Caucus fiscal hawks in line long enough to get it through the House. But if the Senate makes significant changes—and basic pride dictates they justify their existence by doing so—the bill goes back to the House, where MTG and other representatives are taking hits on their support. And over 250 legislators from all 50 states are already opposing a nifty little insert in the House bill that forbids states to regulate AI for a decade.8
The Senate can afford only three defections, and cries of “It’s immoral, it’s wrong” were already showing up before the Trump-Musk blow-up. In the House, the obstructors were focused on more spending cuts. In the Senate, there are two main factions: those wanting deeper cuts on social program spending—including a contingent now demanding $200B in cuts to MediCARE—and those who are concerned about taking away healthcare benefits. History says either option is a terrific way to lose in the 2026 elections and with Joni Ernst’s timely assistance, Chuck Schumer—momentarily un-napped—is now calling the OBBBA the “Well, We’re All Going to Die Act.”
It took a while, but Dems may finally be getting some traction with help from unlikely corners.
The Hill has a good summary of the issues in the Senate here, including who’s opposed to what on Medicaid, SNAP, deficit reduction, spectrum auction, AI9, SALT deductions, and making the tax cut permanent.
As this article on the Senate banking committee’s budget package points out, there are also battles ahead with the Senate parliamentarian as well, although the Senate can just choose to ignore those.
It would be nice to think some sanity might yet prevail, but the possibility of the GOP being blamed for increased taxes by businesses and donors is a huge barrier.
What’s next?
The dust hasn’t yet settled on the Trump-Musk fight. As of today, Trump shows no signs of making peace (click here and here) and, as Turchin notes (see above), things could get very ugly on that front. In fact, Sen. Warren has asked Sec. Rubio about contingency plans on national security if Musk breaches his companies' current contracts with the U.S. amid the ongoing public fall out between him and President Trump.
This week, watch for news on the Trump-Musk front, signals from the Senate—what they do versus what they say, and whether budget discussions are even happening. We’ll update as we go along.
I often source articles—particularly on current DC issues—from The Hill. AllSides rates The Hill center-left. I find they are more on top of both sides of what’s happening in DC and that they stay closer to center in their analyses than many other media.
Yah, I never thought I’d quote Chip Roy either. Identity crisis looming here.
Do ya think? I can’t tell you how hard it is for me to keep sarcasm out of this.
Bannon was quick to see Musk as a competitor for Trump’s love and is intent on continuing to attack Musk. But his celebration is likely premature: Trump may have the power and the following, but Musk has the money. And Trump is remarkable at keeping people in the fold even after massive break-ups; after all, they even go to jail for him. Update June 11: Trump wins.
Only Trump—the master of power redundancy—would have to have “bill” and “act” in the same title.
Musk took another massive $152B hit Thursday afternoon, and others—chiefly Bezos and Zuck—are right there waiting for him to fall out. But they still have a ways to go to catch up to Musk. One suspects some schadenfreude in those corners, though.
There’s substantial curiosity about that one, and senators are sniffing around on origins and motivations. And one of my favorite terms this year—states’ rights—is being applied in the Senate to justify leaving the suspicious AI package out. (“States rights” sounds like such a great idea—until the states discovered that can also mean “let the states pay for it.”)
Artificial Intelligence, not to be confused with A1 sauce. #DontBeLinda
MAG, what a calm yet devastating analysis! Add “all things California“ to the distraction performance… MAGAs must be so proud. 🙄