Shut down déjà vu all over again?
UPDATE Feb 16: Hardly. This time it's limited to DHS, but the media are all over it. Relax. The games have just begun.
FEB 16 UPDATE: It’s still just a DHS shutdown. Here’s what’s happening.
So far, not much. No negotiating, just noise from both sides. But the word “masks” keeps coming up; I suspect nametags may win but masks might be kept. In the meantime, Homan is getting all the media attention (despite Noem/Lewandowski launching a beauty pageant—see WSJ article). And word of Noem’s long-standing romance with Trump fav Corey Lewandowski (both married to someone else) is now as public as it can get, with even the WSJ discussing it (gift article). The really good news after the WSJ article on the “constant chaos” within DHS? Noem is now protesting she’s “still in charge of DHS.” She doth protest too much? We note “chaos” is not a word Trump likes applied to his departments, and apparently Trump is also averse to [public] sexual affairs. Could Noem finally be on the under-bus short list? Although Lewandowski, a DJT favorite, may still find another place of power, maybe not quite as … cozy. As the WSJ article notes, Noem & Lewandowski were positioning her for the 2028 presidency race. Isn’t that reassuring? With VP Corey Lewandowski… And here you thought we’d seen it all. Silly you!
FEB 13 UPDATE: DHS almost certainly will “shut down” this weekend, but no other departments. Here’s the impact.
What you won’t hear on any R-leaning sites: DHS will shut down because “Trump acquiesced to Democrats’ request that Homeland Security funding be stripped from a broader spending package to allow more time for negotiation over demands for changes to immigration enforcement, like a code of conduct for federal agents and a requirement that officers show identification. Homeland Security was temporarily funded only through Feb. 13.”
Democrats say they won’t help approve more funding until new restrictions are placed on federal immigration operations after the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minneapolis last month. In addition to ICE, DHS is also the home of TSA, FEMA, and the Coast Guard.
Since the OBBB generously funded DHS, and particularly ICE (tripled budget), what does this actually mean?
So far, there are no real talks between Rs and Ds. Rs say Dems’ 10 requests are outrageous; Dems say the requests are no more than what is required of other law enforcement, including wearing identifying badges and uniforms, no non-medical masked, and a requirement for judicial (not just administrative) warrants for home invasions and arrests. Read Dem list of demands here. Keep in mind there are hundreds—if not thousands—of lawsuits pending all over the US relative to the same demands Ds are making about ICE. Yesterday’s Senate Judicial Committee hearing was a great overview of the issues; it’s well worth watching. The passion on the Republican side is very clear;not so much actual data or information. The data, and less heated demands, on the Democratic side are also very clear. The hearing was an outstanding introduction to the fireworks we can expect during this limited shut down.
Where will pushback against the shut down show up first?
Again, this is not the entire government, as it was in late 2025. But Rs will have pushback power. FEMA has already been effectively neutered by Kristi Noem. For instance, her new directive now requires DHS approval for FEMA expenditures over $100,000—which any disaster will quickly cost—extends fund approval time from weeks to months and has stalled >$17B in funds for past disasters. Undoubtedly those delays will be tied to this shutdown as well.
TSA is the most likely pressure point. 95% of TSA employees are considered essential and must continue to work whether they are paid or not—and many are still recovering from the full government shutdown in 2025. Being required to work without pay at that pay level will undoubtedly cause hardship, with workers calls out or taking unscheduled leave, leaving flyers in the lurch. That will be a key leverage point for negotiations.
Stay tuned; we’ll update here.
ORIGINAL POST: Has Stephen Miller’s mass deportation war finally come home to roost?
Events in otherwise staid Minneapolis again unexpectedly struck a major national nerve, forcing us to confront who we are (again) by (again) showing us what we’d hope we are not. The killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti forced another national reckoning, just like the murder of George Floyd did in Minneapolis in 2020. And while Good and Pretti likely got more attention because they were White Christian1 US citizens, their killings were just the most recent by ICE. Last year was ICE’s deadliest year in two decades, with at least 32 people killed in 2025 and another six killed already in the first month of 2026.
Newly reality-oriented Americans aren’t happy
Despite DHS and the FBI deliberately withholding evidence that ran counter to their narrative, hardy Minnesotans—with deeply-embedded cultural values of civic and community connection—brought those killings live to our screens for us to judge ourselves, and the result wasn’t pretty. Even as anger continues to build, by the end of January 65% of US adults already said ICE had gone too far, including almost a third of Republicans. As potential swing voters, the 71% of Independents calling foul is a critical number, bringing a jolt of reality to Republicans looking at 2026 Midterms.
Anger about ICE is stronger and more widespread than the outcry about ACA subsidies that Democrats leveraged to bring widespread attention to healthcare costs. And while they gave in at the end, disappointing the more fervent, they only supported funding through the end of January 2026, giving Dems another chance at hot button issues after Republicans failed to extend the subsidies. And for the January negotiations, Dems got smarter. Instead of bringing the entire country to a halt, they targeted only increasingly unpopular Kristi Noem’s DHS.
Senate Ds agreed to overall government funding through the end of FY26 (September 30), but excluded DHS. Until that is resolved, DHS will get no further funding, which won’t hurt ICE much directly. The budget bill created an unprecedented ICE funding boost. A significant $75 billion supplement tripled the ICE budget. ICE has substantial funds allocated for detention and deportation through 2026, with more funding than any other federal law enforcement agency.
But it will impact other DHS functions. DHS also runs FEMA, TSA, and the Coast Guard. Republicans can be counted on to focus at least on how funding will disrupt flights and disaster relief, although—at Trump’s direction—Kristi Noem has been making FEMA a non-functioning entity for the last year. Worse, the media will get sucked into significant coverage, and right now it doesn’t look like that will benefit Republicans.
Which is why Republicans have so far been quiescent on the issue, a pretty good indication of the uneasiness they feel about ICE and the impact on midterms, even if they’re not saying much publicly. Expect them to display huge concerns now, of course—after all, Democrats are surfacing a political burn point, with a pubic increasingy in agreement. They’ll have to fight it. And the longer Democrats drag it out, the worse it will get for Trump and Republicans if Ds manage the media like they did on the ACA subsidies.
Even more critically, media coverage promises to flow over into 2027 Federal budget negotations which were scheduled to begin … wait for it … this month. Media coverage now will absolutely play into FY27 budget talks.
For Democrats, that’s definitely a feature, not a flaw. Take a look at how extended media coverage last year on healthcare costs changed Republican and Independent [swing voter] views on the government’s responsibility to ensure universal healthcare coverage.
DHS funding goes into shutdown
Democrats gave Republicans enough votes to fund the government until the end of the FY—except DHS. At 12:01 Saturday, Feb. 1, DHS funding for the rest of the FY stopped. Senate Democrats, in the minority, have very few ways to stall the Trump train, but this is a powerful one, riding even stronger public opinion than the ACA subsidies issue.2
Love him or hate him, Minority Leader Sen. Schumer (D-NY) is so far refusing to budge until Congress passes a law. With plenty of evidence, he doesn’t trust White House pinky promises to deescalate ICE actions. While Gregory Bovino was banished from Minnesota (but not fired) and the WH is signaling ‘nicer,’ nothing has changed. With a move to impeach her, claws-out street fighter Kristi Noem was quick to go public to ensure everyone knows she only does what Stephen Miller and daddy Trump tell her to do, and Miller is still running the ICE show, as both the WSJ and Forbes recently pointed out. Meanwhile, just-put-the-cash-in-a-bag Tom Homan, now leading the Minnesota ICE front after Bovino’s dethroning, isn’t showing any indication of change despite Trump’s promised ‘softening.’
Why aren’t Democrats negotiating? What do they want?
The Senate has until Feb 13 to fund DHS. Democrats published what they want but are not responding to (proforma) requests from Republicans to ‘negotiate.’ That’s in no small part because Democrats—like everyone else on the planet—know what Republican Senators want makes no difference if The Word has not been sent down by Trump. With Trump mum for now, cue the requisite Senate R whining about how Democrats won’t negotiate.
Why would they? No one knows what Trump wants to do, and Democrats are riding public opinion with increasing signs of Republican Midterm angst, now even at the point there is R concern they might actually lose the Senate, not just the House.
Democrats are demanding ten changes, none of which is different than the laws other US police forces must follow: end racial profiling and indiscriminate arrests; stop use of face-coverings to hide identity; require IDs; stop terrorizing sensitive locations (churches, schools, childcare facilities); require uniforms to end paramilitary appearance (and mindset); and require judicial warrants3 that mandate a show-cause for actions like home invasions and arrests. See the ten demands Democrats are making to fund DHS here (WaPo gift article) or here (The Guardian). So far, nothing is happening, with a February 13 deadline to fund DHS, although some Democrats are already talking extending that deadline.
What’s next?
A lot of media exposureon an issue already angering the public, and that arguably benefited Democrats the most during the 2025 Shutdown. (See above.) Proforma R fussing; ditto from some swing state Democrats. As a distraction, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), with Trump’s support, is pushing the House to vote on the SAVE Act to flush out D resistance. Horror stories about terrorists, drug lords, rapists, etc. potentially making it past TSA or the Coast Guard. Increasing pressure from businesses and Fox on Trump to realize mass deportations may be backfiring badly, and equal pressure from Steve Bannon’s guided missile protégé, uber-insider Miller, to keep going. An Axios article noted that Miller specializes in turning the president’s whims and rantings into government policy,” sometimes in hours, albeit “with the bedside manner of Heinrich Himmler.”
After all, Trump thought that’s why he was elected, and now it turns out some “stupid people in Minnesota” didn’t agree with killing people indiscriminately. (SAD) Trump will continue to blame Democrats for everything, although his recent racist nuttiness might indicate a bit of a panic if he has to resort to that ancient overused trope to call his clan.
Of course, as is always the case, he “never saw it” and since it became a problem even with his allies, it was “done by an unauthorized aide,” so why would he apologize? One thing we can all trust about Trump: the buck never stops with him. That’s worked pretty well so far, at least within the likely ~30% of the US that continue to identify MAGA-ish these days.
Another thing we can trust: Trump follows the polls avidly, and the news keeps geting worse. He’s net -36 with Independents, and even Fox can’t create a poll with more than 44% approval. That, more than anything, is causing Trump some equivocating about ICE and even Miller, likely aided and abetted by Miller’s own enemies. Miller’s role in ICE has suddenly become the media story of the month—unusual for a guy who was smart enough previously to stay under the radar. As we know, Trump is not fond of underlings getting media coverage, and Miller has suddenly been getting a lot.
And then we’ll see who wobbles. What happens to Miller’s ICE role. Whether the WH sacrifices the agents who killed Good and Pretti. The next ICE wild card stunt. To what extent Leavitt’s precocious gaslighting skills can muddle the picture. Whether Noem gets the under-bus view many have long predicted—with clasing, kicking, and screeching that may make even Trump deeply regret he ever met her. Quietly hostile Melania she is not.
After protracted writhing and tea leaf readings, finally a decision, with The Word reaching Senate Republicans so they know where, when and how deeply to bow. And, of course, the enduring question of whether Democrats fold and/or eat their own.
Bottom line: stay tuned for February ICE drama filling your screens.
Renee Good was reportedly a devout Presbyterian, and VA ICU nurse Alex Pretti was Catholic—the social justice variety, not the midieval variety. Overnight, he became a Catholic social justice hero. Pope Leo, elected in 2025, is an American (and as progresive as a pope can be). He quickly took on JD Vance and Trump and hasn’t backed off since on the immorality of this White House’s aggressive deportation policies and actions. Substacker Christopher Hale, who writes as Letters from Leo, has one of the fastest growing newsletters in Substack’s politics—not religion—rankings. He digs deep, with a recent post on far right-wing ‘Catholic’ Steve Bannon and Jeffrey Epstein (yes, that Epstein) discussions on “taking down” Pope Francis, the pope who preceded Leo. Bannon, one of the very few who picked Leo as a dark horse for pope, describes Leo as "the worst pick for MAGA Catholics." If you like Bannon, there you go. If you think Bannon is one of the most detestable swamp creatures ever to grasp political power, Hale provides an excellent intro on Leo’s potential impact on US politics, not just US Catholics.
Since the subsidies were not renewed, one perspective is that the December Shutdown created far greater coverage (AKA public visibility) on healthcare costs than would otherwise have happened organically. After all, only 7% of the US population is covered under ACA; without the extensive media coverage, the other 93% might have remained oblivious. Because the subsidies were ultimately not extended, by Midterms a lot more people will be feeling the pain and know who to punish. Add to that the effect of all health costs going up this year. Costs for employer-provided coverage are rising this year by 9%, the highest increase in 15 years, and Medicare Part B premiums increased by 9.7% in January, more than triple the 2.8% cost of living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits. From a purely marketing perspective, the Shutdown worked for both Republican (messaging Dems were the problem) and Democrat messaging (Republicans won’t decrease healthcare costs) for their own bases. But the overall touchdown on crucial swing voters—Independents—went to Democrats, and they may be headed for an even better hit this time around.
So far, ICE is depending on ‘administrative warrants’ to take someone into custody. Administrative warrants do not authorize agents to enter a private home without consent or make an arrest, as they attenpted to do with both Good and Pretti. Administrative warrants are easier to obtain as they do not require the substantive evidence a judicial warrant does. Read about the differences here. Eventually this will all show up in court; tell that to Good, Pretti or the dozens other killed by ICE during questionably legal (at best) take-downs.